{"built":"2026-10-25","population":11468210,"benchmark":{"cases":178,"loans":239,"tune_loans":114,"test_loans":125,"how":"DOJ/USAO press releases (justice.gov API, titles about PPP/pandemic relief, 9,575 releases searched, 2,401 mentioning PPP) whose title says charged, indicted, arrested, pleaded, convicted or sentenced; borrower names extracted from the text and matched to SBA PPP FOIA data (Sep 30 2024 release) by exact name (Inc/LLC ignored) in the release's state, kept only when a dollar amount in the release equals the loan amount (within 0.5%). Split 50/50 by press release into tuning and held-out test sets.","note":"v2 benchmark (Oct 25 2026): adds sole-proprietor matches by defendant full name + state + exact amount; 123 loans < $150k. Weights unchanged from v27 (fitted on the original 59 tuning loans); refits on the 114-loan tuning split did not beat v27 on held-out data."},"models":{"public_application":{"weights":{"over_cap":1.654,"round_k":0.863,"new_biz":2.311,"age_blank":0.759,"a2":0.211,"a5":1.371,"nr3":1.347,"fintech":1.871,"big":2.985,"small":-7.755},"intercept":-2.151394264148389,"thresholds":[{"target":0.01,"thr":2.7066,"flag_rate":0.00915766279131617},{"target":0.02,"thr":2.0246,"flag_rate":0.019963272385141187},{"target":0.05,"thr":1.0526,"flag_rate":0.04029556487019334},{"target":0.1,"thr":0.8496,"flag_rate":0.05413756811219885}]},"with_outcomes":{"weights":{"over_cap":1.917,"round_k":1.383,"new_biz":1.311,"age_blank":1.141,"a2":0.473,"fintech":0.769,"big":2.347,"small":-7.73,"not_forgiven":3.786},"intercept":-3.0714084026853405,"thresholds":[{"target":0.01,"thr":1.9616,"flag_rate":0.008955277240301669},{"target":0.02,"thr":1.5396,"flag_rate":0.016964024900136987},{"target":0.05,"thr":0.7556,"flag_rate":0.043953153979566124},{"target":0.1,"thr":-0.6884,"flag_rate":0.08983128142927274}]}},"flags":{"over_cap":{"population_rate":0.022306489827356436,"benchmark_rate":0.10460251046025104,"lift":4.689330830167984},"round_k":{"population_rate":0.05158741681505822,"benchmark_rate":0.12133891213389121,"lift":2.3521028891385143},"new_biz":{"population_rate":0.0614992888889664,"benchmark_rate":0.16317991631799164,"lift":2.65336265290163},"age_blank":{"population_rate":0.0462863918996656,"benchmark_rate":0.09205020920502092,"lift":1.988709973431434},"a2":{"population_rate":0.2245778263652742,"benchmark_rate":0.28451882845188287,"lift":1.2669052553261204},"a5":{"population_rate":0.027345290635980856,"benchmark_rate":0.03347280334728033,"lift":1.224079268085632},"nr3":{"population_rate":0.007404797239197763,"benchmark_rate":0.04602510460251046,"lift":6.215579321858222},"fintech":{"population_rate":0.2639289025059446,"benchmark_rate":0.5648535564853556,"lift":2.1401731721012753},"big":{"population_rate":0.08444458047548255,"benchmark_rate":0.48535564853556484,"lift":5.747623421215076},"small":{"population_rate":0.4628860676400385,"benchmark_rate":0.08368200836820083,"lift":0.18078316505580336},"not_forgiven":{"population_rate":0.07826545776929503,"benchmark_rate":0.6359832635983264,"lift":8.125976410602869}},"methods":{"n_bench":99,"n_all":1753,"bench":[["Luxury or personal spending traced",46],["Money laundering / funds moved to others",36],["Ring / recruiter / kickback network",32],["Also defrauded EIDL / other relief",29],["Inflated employees or payroll",28],["Fake or altered payroll/tax documents (e.g. Form 941, W-2, 1099)",25],["Shell, defunct or newly formed business",11],["Bank / lender flagged it (SAR, fraud review, refused)",8],["Stolen or misused identities (incl. deceased)",7],["Multiple applications or lenders",2],["IRS / tax-record mismatch (no filings or wages paid)",2],["Data analytics / PRAC / OIG data match",1],["Tip, whistleblower or qui tam",1]],"all":[["Luxury or personal spending traced",633],["Also defrauded EIDL / other relief",623],["Money laundering / funds moved to others",564],["Ring / recruiter / kickback network",448],["Fake or altered payroll/tax documents (e.g. Form 941, W-2, 1099)",433],["Inflated employees or payroll",268],["Shell, defunct or newly formed business",242],["Tip, whistleblower or qui tam",177],["Stolen or misused identities (incl. deceased)",175],["Multiple applications or lenders",111],["Data analytics / PRAC / OIG data match",73],["Bank / lender flagged it (SAR, fraud review, refused)",49],["IRS / tax-record mismatch (no filings or wages paid)",23]],"agencies_bench":[["FBI",69],["SBA OIG",38],["IRS-CI",29],["TIGTA",25],["Secret Service",12],["FDIC OIG",9],["HSI",6],["FHFA/Fed OIG",3],["USPIS",2]],"agencies_all":[["FBI",820],["SBA OIG",513],["IRS-CI",413],["TIGTA",280],["Secret Service",196],["FDIC OIG",166],["HSI",163],["USPIS",129],["FHFA/Fed OIG",126],["Dept of Labor OIG",66]]}}